I have always found it frustrating with the dialogue that
steroids should be credited with the home run explosion starting in the
early-90’s. Yes, steroids did need to be addressed and I am glad that it was,
but team expansion also deserves a significant amount of credit to the big home
run numbers dating back to the 1960’s.
This spring, Major League Baseball announced that they
would expand roster size to 26 players starting in the 2020 season. That in and
of itself means that in 2020, there will be 30 additional players who would
have otherwise been in the minor leagues on big league rosters. Without adding
a team, baseball will impact their competition. By adding two expansion teams,
an additional 52 players would be on the big stage. This is especially
important to the extremes. Great hitters are still going to be great hitters and
they are facing pitchers that would have otherwise been in the minors and it
stands to reason that home run numbers would jump.
Historically, there have been six seasons of expansion,
heavily during the 1960’s and again in the 1990’s which are the two era’s that
produced some of the most prestigious home run hitters. Prior to 1960, only 4
players were members of the 500-home run club (Ruth, Foxx, Williams & Ott)
and there have been 23 members added since 1960. The game has gone through
changes, but the surge in power numbers over the course of the last 60 years
seems to have direct correlation to the number of teams.
History of
expansion:
1901-1960, 16 teams
-
AL: A’s, Indians, Orioles, Red Sox, Senators,
Tigers, White Sox, Yankees
-
NL: Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants,
Phillies, Pirates, Reds
1961, 18 teams
-
AL: Angels, Twins
1962, 20 teams
-
NL: Astros (then called Colt .45’s), Mets
1969, 24 teams
-
AL: Brewers (after one season as the Seattle
Pilots, team moved to Milwaukee in 1970), Royals (A’s relocate to Oakland).
1972 – Washington Senators relocate to become Texas Rangers.
-
NL: Expos, Padres
1977, 26 teams
-
AL: Blue Jays, Mariners
1993, 28 teams:
-
NL: Marlins, Rockies
1998, 30 teams:
-
AL: Rays
-
NL: Diamondbacks
The first visualization shows the average number of home
runs that were hit with each step of expansion with significant growth each
time.
Years
|
Average HR's
|
1951-1960
|
2,092
|
1961-1968
|
2,615
|
1969-1976
|
2,829
|
1977-1992
|
3,295
|
1993-1997
|
4,204
|
1998-Present
|
5,138
|
What is even more compelling is looking at the year over
year percentage changes in home runs. In particular, the first year after
expansion, the growth in home runs is enormous. Even for the lowest growth
percentage of 1998 and 9.14%, that was the only occurrence where only one team
was added to each league. It stands to reason that it would be the lowest
number because in all other situations, there were two teams added to a
particular league.
Year
|
HR's
|
Year
|
HR's
|
%Change
|
1960 (AL)
|
1,086
|
1961 (AL)
|
1,534
|
41.25%
|
1961 (NL)
|
1,196
|
1962 (NL)
|
1,449
|
21.15%
|
1968
|
1,995
|
1969
|
3,119
|
56.34%
|
1976 (AL)
|
1,122
|
1977 (AL)
|
2,013
|
79.41%
|
1992 (NL)
|
1,262
|
1993 (NL)
|
1,956
|
54.99%
|
1997
|
4,640
|
1998
|
5,064
|
9.14%
|
Looking to 2020 when the roster size increases by one
player, it is highly probable that there will be an uptick in home runs. Should
the roster size increase be coupled with two additional teams in the next few
years, I would expect to see players chasing 60 or even 70 home runs in a
season without the dialogue of steroids clouding the situation.
This could be an excellent opportunity for baseball to
step back into the sports spotlight in identifying a new generation’s superstar
similar to Bonds, McGwire/Sosa/Griffey, Maris/Mantle or Ruth.
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